Why markets
Why a tonne needs a price.
Emissions are still rising. Current government policies point to roughly 2.8°C of warming this century — well past the 1.5°C limit countries agreed to aim for.
57.7
Billion tonnes of greenhouse gas (57.7 GtCO2e) emitted in 2024 — a record, and 2.3% higher than 2023.
UNEP, Emissions Gap Report 2025
The rest of the ledger.
38+
Billion tonnes of energy-related CO2 in 2025 — another record, though growth slowed to about 0.4%.
IEA, Global Energy Review
2.8°C
Projected warming this century if current policies hold. The 20 largest economies account for 77% of global emissions.
UNEP, Emissions Gap Report 2025
55%
How far emissions must fall below 2019 levels by 2035 to stay on a 1.5°C path. For 2°C, the figure is 35%.
UNEP, Emissions Gap Report 2025
~3 Gt
CO2 avoided each year by clean technology deployed since 2019 — around 8% of global emissions.
IEA
“Climate change is the greatest market failure the world has seen.”
The point is simple: emitting is free for the emitter, while the damage is paid for by everyone else. Putting a price on the tonne is how that cost is brought back into the decision.
Four tools. Only one pays for a tonne today.
They are not rivals, and none is sufficient alone. But only a market turns an avoided tonne into revenue a small operator can bank.
Regulation
Laws and standards tighten over time and apply to everyone at once. They are essential, but slow to cross borders and liable to change with governments.
Technology
Solar, wind, nuclear, electric vehicles and heat pumps deployed since 2019 already avoid around 3 billion tonnes of CO₂ a year. Adoption still follows a price signal or a rule.
Public money
Tax credits, grants and concessional lending get first-of-a-kind projects built. Public budgets are finite and compete with everything else.
Carbon markets
A price attaches revenue to each tonne avoided or removed, today, under contract. Around 80 carbon taxes and trading systems now cover about 28% of global emissions.
The markets as they actually are.
Not a forecast — what was in operation and transacted most recently.
80
Carbon taxes and emissions trading systems in operation worldwide.
World Bank, State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2025
~28%
Share of global greenhouse gas emissions covered by some carbon price.
World Bank 2025
>$100bn
Government revenue raised through carbon pricing in 2024.
World Bank 2025
$535m
Reported value of credits bought voluntarily by companies in 2024.
Ecosystem Marketplace SOVCM 2025
LEARN MORE
- World Bank, State and Trends of Carbon Pricing
- World Bank, Carbon Pricing Dashboard
- Ecosystem Marketplace, State of the Voluntary Carbon Market
- UNFCCC, Article 6 of the Paris Agreement
- Government of Canada, carbon pollution pricing
Figures are taken from the most recent published editions of each report and are updated as new editions appear.
Which is why the name is the thesis.
Transition. Carbon. Capital. In that order.